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Tishreen vs Al Majd — Premier League 2019

Tishreen
Tishreen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Majd
Al Majd
5/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tishreen58%
×Draw23%
Al Majd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tishreen
1.83
Al Majd
0.95

Tishreen creates 93% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tishreen
1.56
Al Majd
1.30

allows per match

Tishreen
0.59
Al Majd
2.10

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par
Al Majd+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Al Majd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw
81%
Tishreen or Al Majd
77%
Draw or Al Majd
42%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+
33%
Al Majd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals
84%
Tishreen 2+ goals
54%
Tishreen 3+ goals
28%
Al Majd 1+ goals
61%
Al Majd 2+ goals
25%
Al Majd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)
75%
Al Majd (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 81 matches

Al Majd away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 1.56 + Al Majd defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Majd attack 1.30 + Tishreen defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tishreen scores more
58%
level
23%
Al Majd scores more
19%

Tishreen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tishreen 1–0 Al Majd

Tishreen beat Al Majd 1-0 in Premier League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Al Basil Stadium in Latakia.