Tishreen 2–2 Al Jaish: Result & Stats

Tishreen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Al Jaish

5/29/2020

Premier League · Round 17Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tishreen35%

×Draw27%

Al Jaish38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TishreenExpected goals in this matchAl Jaish

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.29

Tishreen

1.24

Al Jaish

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 13 away

1.56

creates per match

2.00

0.59

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Tishreen

1.56

Al Jaish

2.00

allows per match

Tishreen

0.59

Al Jaish

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tishreen+0.00on par

Al Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tishreen ↓

Al Jaish →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tishreen or draw

62%

Tishreen or Al Jaish

73%

Draw or Al Jaish

65%

Winning margin

Tishreen wins by 2+

15%

Al Jaish wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tishreen 1+ goals

71%

Tishreen 2+ goals

35%

Tishreen 3+ goals

13%

Al Jaish 1+ goals

72%

Al Jaish 2+ goals

37%

Al Jaish 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tishreen (draw refunded)

48%

Al Jaish (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tishreen at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.59 · 81 matches

Al Jaish away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tishreen attack 1.56 + Al Jaish defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al Jaish attack 2.00 + Tishreen defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tishreen scores more

35%

level

27%

Al Jaish scores more

38%

Al Jaish at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff