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Tisa Adorjan vs Zeleznicar Inđija — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
1 – 3
Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
3/24/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tisa Adorjan39%
×Draw25%
Zeleznicar Inđija36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.47
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.40

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Zeleznicar Inđija
1.04

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
64%
Tisa Adorjan or Zeleznicar Inđija
75%
Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija
61%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
18%
Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
77%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
43%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
18%
Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
76%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
41%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
51%
Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.47

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
39%
level
25%
Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
36%

Tisa Adorjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs Zeleznicar Inđija

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Tisa Adorjan 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.