Tisa Adorjan 0–2 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Tisa Adorjan

FT

0 – 2

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

5/9/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 33Stadion u Narodnom parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tisa Adorjan59%

×Draw21%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tisa AdorjanExpected goals in this matchSloboda Novi Kozarci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.11

Tisa Adorjan

2.08

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.11

Tisa Adorjan creates 87% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

0.79

1.43

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.90

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

0.79

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.43

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw

80%

Tisa Adorjan or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

79%

Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

41%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

36%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

87%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

61%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

34%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

67%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

30%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

75%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more

59%

level

21%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

20%

Tisa Adorjan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff