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Tisa Adorjan vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
4/24/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan51%
×Draw23%
Radnički Zrenjanin26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.84
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.25

Tisa Adorjan creates 47% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 87 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
74%
Tisa Adorjan or Radnički Zrenjanin
77%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
49%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
29%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
84%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
55%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
28%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
71%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
36%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
66%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
51%
level
23%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
26%

Tisa Adorjan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs Radnički Zrenjanin

Tisa Adorjan beat Radnički Zrenjanin 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.