Tisa Adorjan 0–1 Omladinac NB: Result & Stats

Tisa Adorjan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Omladinac NB

9/10/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan43%

×Draw25%

Omladinac NB32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tisa AdorjanExpected goals in this matchOmladinac NB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.26

Tisa Adorjan

1.50

Omladinac NB

1.26

Tisa Adorjan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 103 away

1.90

creates per match

1.09

1.43

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.90

Omladinac NB

1.09

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.43

Omladinac NB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Omladinac NB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw

68%

Tisa Adorjan or Omladinac NB

75%

Draw or Omladinac NB

57%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

21%

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

78%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

44%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

19%

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

72%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

36%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

57%

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more

43%

level

25%

Omladinac NB scores more

32%

Tisa Adorjan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff