Tisa Adorjan 1–2 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Tisa Adorjan

FT

1 – 2

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

9/18/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan52%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tisa AdorjanExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.23

Tisa Adorjan

1.84

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.23

Tisa Adorjan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

1.90

creates per match

1.03

1.43

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.90

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan

1.43

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw

74%

Tisa Adorjan or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

48%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+

29%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals

84%

Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals

55%

Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals

28%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

71%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

35%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)

67%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more

52%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

26%

Tisa Adorjan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff