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Tisa Adorjan vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
4 – 1
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
6/10/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan50%
×Draw23%
Hajduk 1912 Kula27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.83
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.30

Tisa Adorjan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 72 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
73%
Tisa Adorjan or Hajduk 1912 Kula
77%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
50%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
28%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
84%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
54%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
28%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
73%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
37%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
65%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
50%
level
23%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
27%

Tisa Adorjan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Tisa Adorjan 4–1 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Tisa Adorjan beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.