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Tisa Adorjan vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Becej
FK Becej
11/13/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 14Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Tisa Adorjan58%
×Draw20%
FK Becej22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
2.20
FK Becej
1.29

Tisa Adorjan creates 71% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
78%
Tisa Adorjan or FK Becej
80%
Draw or FK Becej
42%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
36%
FK Becej wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
89%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
64%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
37%
FK Becej 1+ goals
72%
FK Becej 2+ goals
37%
FK Becej 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
73%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.20

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
58%
level
20%
FK Becej scores more
22%

Tisa Adorjan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs FK Becej

Tisa Adorjan beat FK Becej 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.