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Tisa Adorjan vs Borac Sakule — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
2 – 1
Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
11/1/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tisa Adorjan45%
×Draw23%
Borac Sakule31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.75
Borac Sakule
1.42

Tisa Adorjan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Borac Sakule
1.40

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Borac Sakule
1.60

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Borac Sakule →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
69%
Tisa Adorjan or Borac Sakule
77%
Draw or Borac Sakule
55%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
24%
Borac Sakule wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
83%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
52%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
25%
Borac Sakule 1+ goals
76%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
41%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
59%
Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
45%
level
23%
Borac Sakule scores more
31%

Tisa Adorjan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs Borac Sakule

Tisa Adorjan beat Borac Sakule 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.