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Tisa Adorjan vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Backa
Backa
8/13/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Igralište Tise

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Tisa Adorjan54%
×Draw23%
Backa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.80
Backa
1.10

Tisa Adorjan creates 64% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Backa
1.70

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
77%
Tisa Adorjan or Backa
77%
Draw or Backa
46%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
30%
Backa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
83%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
54%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
27%
Backa 1+ goals
67%
Backa 2+ goals
30%
Backa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
70%
Backa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Backa attack 0.78 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
54%
level
23%
Backa scores more
23%

Tisa Adorjan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs Backa

Tisa Adorjan beat Backa 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište Tise in Adorjan.