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Tisa Adorjan vs Bačka 1901 — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
FT
0 – 1
Bačka 1901
Bačka 1901
4/18/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion u Narodnom parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tisa Adorjan52%
×Draw22%
Bačka 190126%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tisa Adorjan
1.95
Bačka 1901
1.34

Tisa Adorjan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 27 away

creates per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.90
Bačka 1901
1.26

allows per match

Tisa Adorjan
1.43
Bačka 1901
2.00

finishing

Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par
Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tisa Adorjan ↓

Bačka 1901 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tisa Adorjan or draw
74%
Tisa Adorjan or Bačka 1901
78%
Draw or Bačka 1901
48%

Winning margin

Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
30%
Bačka 1901 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
86%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
58%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
31%
Bačka 1901 1+ goals
74%
Bačka 1901 2+ goals
39%
Bačka 1901 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
66%
Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tisa Adorjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.43 · 63 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.90 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tisa Adorjan scores more
52%
level
22%
Bačka 1901 scores more
26%

Tisa Adorjan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tisa Adorjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tisa Adorjan vs Bačka 1901

Bačka 1901 beat Tisa Adorjan 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion u Narodnom parku in Kanjiža.