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Tirsense vs Olímpico do Montijo — Taça de Portugal 2018

Tirsense
Tirsense
FT
2 – 3
Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
10/21/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tirsense26%
×Draw23%
Olímpico do Montijo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirsense
1.23
Olímpico do Montijo
1.83

Olímpico do Montijo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tirsense
1.14
Olímpico do Montijo
1.67

allows per match

Tirsense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.33

finishing

Tirsense+0.00on par
Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirsense ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tirsense or draw
49%
Tirsense or Olímpico do Montijo
77%
Draw or Olímpico do Montijo
74%

Winning margin

Tirsense wins by 2+
10%
Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tirsense 1+ goals
71%
Tirsense 2+ goals
35%
Tirsense 3+ goals
13%
Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
84%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
54%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Tirsense (draw refunded)
33%
Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirsense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirsense attack 1.14 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olímpico do Montijo attack 1.67 + Tirsense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tirsense scores more
26%
level
23%
Olímpico do Montijo scores more
51%

Olímpico do Montijo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Olímpico do Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Tirsense 2–3 Olímpico do Montijo

Olímpico do Montijo beat Tirsense 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Abel Alves de Figueiredo in Santo Tirso.