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Tirol/CEFAT vs Itapipoca — Cearense - 2 2019

Tirol/CEFAT
Tirol/CEFATadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Itapipoca
Itapipoca
M. Hulk 90+6'
Diego Viana 79'
Otacilio Marcos 39'
Laerth 12'
Unknown 90+1'
Vitor Ribeiro 55'
4/20/2024Cearense - 2Cearense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tirol/CEFAT52%
×Draw24%
Itapipoca25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirol/CEFAT
1.73
Itapipoca
1.12

Tirol/CEFAT creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 37 away

creates per match

Tirol/CEFAT
1.94
Itapipoca
1.24

allows per match

Tirol/CEFAT
1.00
Itapipoca
1.51

finishing

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par
Itapipoca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirol/CEFAT ↓

Itapipoca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tirol/CEFAT or draw
75%
Tirol/CEFAT or Itapipoca
76%
Draw or Itapipoca
48%

Winning margin

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+
28%
Itapipoca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals
82%
Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals
52%
Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals
25%
Itapipoca 1+ goals
67%
Itapipoca 2+ goals
31%
Itapipoca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)
68%
Itapipoca (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirol/CEFAT at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Itapipoca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirol/CEFAT attack 1.94 + Itapipoca defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

Itapipoca attack 1.24 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tirol/CEFAT scores more
52%
level
24%
Itapipoca scores more
25%

Tirol/CEFAT at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tirol/CEFAT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Laerth
39'
Otacilio Marcos
55'
Vitor Ribeiro
61'
Laerth
79'
Diego Viana
90+1'
90+5'
90+6'
M. Hulk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tirol/CEFAT vs Itapipoca

Tirol/CEFAT beat Itapipoca 4-2 in Cearense - 2 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: Laerth (12'), Otacilio Marcos (39'), Vitor Ribeiro (55'), Diego Viana (79'), ? (90+1'), M. Hulk (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas in Fortaleza, Ceará.