Tirana 1–1 Vllaznia Shkodër: Result & Stats

Tirana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vllaznia Shkodër

12/20/2025

Superliga · Round 17Arena Kombetare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Tirana43%

×Draw29%

Vllaznia Shkodër29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiranaExpected goals in this matchVllaznia Shkodër

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.97

Tirana

1.25

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.97

Tirana creates 29% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 128 away

1.49

creates per match

0.97

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Tirana

1.49

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.97

allows per match

Tirana

0.97

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tirana or draw

71%

Tirana or Vllaznia Shkodër

71%

Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër

57%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+

19%

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals

71%

Tirana 2+ goals

36%

Tirana 3+ goals

13%

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

62%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

25%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)

60%

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tirana scores more

43%

level

29%

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

29%

Tirana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff