Tirana 0–1 Teuta Durrës: Result & Stats | Superliga

Tirana

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Teuta Durrës

M. Beshiraj 80'

4/19/2025

Superliga · Round 35Arena Kombëtare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Tirana45%

×Draw28%

Teuta Durrës27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiranaExpected goals in this matchTeuta Durrës

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Tirana

1.31

Teuta Durrës

0.95

Tirana creates 38% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

1.49

creates per match

0.93

0.97

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Tirana

1.49

Teuta Durrës

0.93

allows per match

Tirana

0.97

Teuta Durrës

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Teuta Durrës →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tirana or draw

73%

Tirana or Teuta Durrës

72%

Draw or Teuta Durrës

55%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+

21%

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals

73%

Tirana 2+ goals

38%

Tirana 3+ goals

14%

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

61%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

25%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)

62%

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 144 matches

Teuta Durrës away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.12 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 1.49 + Teuta Durrës defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Teuta Durrës attack 0.93 + Tirana defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tirana scores more

45%

level

28%

Teuta Durrës scores more

27%

Tirana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Kruja

57'

A. Jazxhi

58'

E. Kola

65'

A. Bajrovic← R. Haxhiu

65'

H. Marku← G. Mici

71'

M. Beshiraj← A. Çyrbja

80'

80'

90+3'

90+2'

Tirana

Teuta

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Shkëmbi

65'▲A. Bajrovic←▼R. Haxhiu

65'▲H. Marku←▼G. Mici

90+2'▲A. Gjumsi←▼L. Vera

Tirana substitutes

BajrovicMarkuGjumsiMihanaHarizajVogli

71'▲M. Beshiraj←▼A. Çyrbja

80'▲D. Kapllani←▼R. Toma

Teuta Durrës substitutes

BeshirajKapllaniGjinollariArifiKarabeciVataTorrajKalajMingosPeposhi