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Tirana vs Beşiktaş — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Tirana
Tirana
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
8/3/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAir Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tirana15%
×Draw24%
Beşiktaş61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tirana
0.69
Beşiktaş
1.69

Beşiktaş creates 145% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tirana
0.25
Beşiktaş
2.13

allows per match

Tirana
1.25
Beşiktaş
1.13

finishing

Tirana+0.00on par
Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tirana ↓

Beşiktaş →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tirana or draw
39%
Tirana or Beşiktaş
76%
Draw or Beşiktaş
85%

Winning margin

Tirana wins by 2+
4%
Beşiktaş wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Tirana 1+ goals
50%
Tirana 2+ goals
15%
Tirana 3+ goals
3%
Beşiktaş 1+ goals
82%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
50%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tirana (draw refunded)
20%
Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tirana at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tirana attack 0.25 + Beşiktaş defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.69

Beşiktaş attack 2.13 + Tirana defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tirana scores more
15%
level
24%
Beşiktaş scores more
61%

Beşiktaş at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Tirana 0–2 Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş beat Tirana 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 3, 2023.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.