Tira 6–1 Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan: Result & Stats

Tira

6 – 1

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

9/20/2022

State Cup · 6th RoundMunicipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tira66%

×Draw17%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiraExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Bnei Abu Snan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.27

Tira

2.66

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

1.27

Tira creates 109% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

2.57

creates per match

1.25

1.29

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Tira

2.57

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

1.25

allows per match

Tira

1.29

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tira+0.00on par

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tira ↓

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tira or draw

84%

Tira or Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

83%

Draw or Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan

34%

Winning margin

Tira wins by 2+

45%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan wins by 2+

Team goals

Tira 1+ goals

93%

Tira 2+ goals

74%

Tira 3+ goals

49%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tira (draw refunded)

80%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tira at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tira attack 2.57 + Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan attack 1.25 + Tira defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tira scores more

66%

level

17%

Maccabi Bnei Abu Snan scores more

16%

Tira at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff