Tira 2–1 Hapoel Kfar Kana: Result & Stats

Tira

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Kana

12/22/2023

League #496 · North - 7Tira Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tira46%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Kfar Kana30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TiraExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Kana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.33

Tira

1.70

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.33

Tira creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

1.17

1.50

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Tira

1.70

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.17

allows per match

Tira

1.50

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tira+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tira ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tira or draw

70%

Tira or Hapoel Kfar Kana

76%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana

54%

Winning margin

Tira wins by 2+

24%

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tira 1+ goals

82%

Tira 2+ goals

51%

Tira 3+ goals

24%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tira (draw refunded)

61%

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tira at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tira attack 1.70 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.17 + Tira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tira scores more

46%

level

24%

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

30%

Tira at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff