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Tira vs Hapoel Kfar Kana — State Cup 2019

Tira
Tira
FT
2 – 1
Hapoel Kfar Kana
Hapoel Kfar Kana
9/2/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Wahib Jabara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tira63%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Kfar Kana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tira
2.16
Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.02

Tira creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tira
2.57
Hapoel Kfar Kana
0.75

allows per match

Tira
1.29
Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.75

finishing

Tira+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tira ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tira or draw
83%
Tira or Hapoel Kfar Kana
80%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana
37%

Winning margin

Tira wins by 2+
40%
Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tira 1+ goals
88%
Tira 2+ goals
63%
Tira 3+ goals
36%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals
27%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tira (draw refunded)
79%
Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tira at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tira attack 2.57 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.16

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 0.75 + Tira defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tira scores more
63%
level
20%
Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more
17%

Tira at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Tira 2–1 Hapoel Kfar Kana

Tira beat Hapoel Kfar Kana 2-1 in State Cup on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Wahib Jabara Stadium in Taibe.