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TiPS vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

TiPS
TiPS
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Turku PS
Turku PS
6/16/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsTikkurila urheilupuisto nurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TiPS15%
×Draw18%
Turku PS68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TiPS
1.09
Turku PS
2.50

Turku PS creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

TiPS
1.00
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

TiPS
3.00
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

TiPS+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TiPS ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TiPS or draw
32%
TiPS or Turku PS
82%
Draw or Turku PS
85%

Winning margin

TiPS wins by 2+
5%
Turku PS wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

TiPS 1+ goals
66%
TiPS 2+ goals
30%
TiPS 3+ goals
10%
Turku PS 1+ goals
92%
Turku PS 2+ goals
71%
Turku PS 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

TiPS (draw refunded)
18%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TiPS at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TiPS attack 1.00 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Turku PS attack 2.00 + TiPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

TiPS scores more
15%
level
18%
Turku PS scores more
68%

Turku PS at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TiPS 0 – 6 Turku PS

Turku PS beat TiPS 6-0 in Suomen Cup on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Tikkurila urheilupuisto nurmi in Vantaa.