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TiPS vs Reipas — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

TiPS
TiPS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reipas
Reipas
6/4/2023Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 6Tikkurila urheilupuisto nurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

TiPS15%
×Draw17%
Reipas69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TiPS
1.16
Reipas
2.66

Reipas creates 129% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

creates per match

TiPS
0.82
Reipas
1.87

allows per match

TiPS
3.45
Reipas
1.49

finishing

TiPS+0.00on par
Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TiPS ↓

Reipas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

TiPS or draw
31%
TiPS or Reipas
83%
Draw or Reipas
85%

Winning margin

TiPS wins by 2+
5%
Reipas wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

TiPS 1+ goals
69%
TiPS 2+ goals
32%
TiPS 3+ goals
11%
Reipas 1+ goals
93%
Reipas 2+ goals
74%
Reipas 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

TiPS (draw refunded)
18%
Reipas (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TiPS at home — creates 0.82, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

Reipas away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TiPS attack 0.82 + Reipas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Reipas attack 1.87 + TiPS defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

TiPS scores more
15%
level
17%
Reipas scores more
69%

Reipas at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: TiPS 0–0 Reipas

TiPS and Reipas drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Tikkurila urheilupuisto nurmi in Vantaa.