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TiPS vs PKKU — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

TiPS
TiPS
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
PKKU
PKKU
5/13/2023Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 3Tikkurila urheilupuisto tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

TiPS21%
×Draw19%
PKKU60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TiPS
1.44
PKKU
2.49

PKKU creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 44 away

creates per match

TiPS
0.82
PKKU
1.52

allows per match

TiPS
3.45
PKKU
2.07

finishing

TiPS+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TiPS ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

TiPS or draw
40%
TiPS or PKKU
81%
Draw or PKKU
79%

Winning margin

TiPS wins by 2+
9%
PKKU wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

TiPS 1+ goals
76%
TiPS 2+ goals
42%
TiPS 3+ goals
18%
PKKU 1+ goals
92%
PKKU 2+ goals
71%
PKKU 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

TiPS (draw refunded)
26%
PKKU (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TiPS at home — creates 0.82, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

PKKU away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TiPS attack 0.82 + PKKU defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

PKKU attack 1.52 + TiPS defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TiPS scores more
21%
level
19%
PKKU scores more
60%

PKKU at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TiPS 3 – 3 PKKU

TiPS and PKKU drew 3-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Tikkurila urheilupuisto tekonurmi in Vantaa.