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Tinyosi vs Mhlume Peacemakers — Premier League 2020

Tinyosi
Tinyosi
FT
3 – 0
Mhlume Peacemakers
Mhlume Peacemakers
6/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tinyosi54%
×Draw24%
Mhlume Peacemakers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tinyosi
1.70
Mhlume Peacemakers
1.00

Tinyosi creates 70% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tinyosi
0.79
Mhlume Peacemakers
0.53

allows per match

Tinyosi
1.48
Mhlume Peacemakers
2.60

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par
Mhlume Peacemakers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Mhlume Peacemakers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw
78%
Tinyosi or Mhlume Peacemakers
76%
Draw or Mhlume Peacemakers
46%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+
29%
Mhlume Peacemakers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals
82%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
51%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
24%
Mhlume Peacemakers 1+ goals
63%
Mhlume Peacemakers 2+ goals
26%
Mhlume Peacemakers 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)
71%
Mhlume Peacemakers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Mhlume Peacemakers away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Mhlume Peacemakers defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mhlume Peacemakers attack 0.53 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tinyosi scores more
54%
level
24%
Mhlume Peacemakers scores more
22%

Tinyosi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tinyosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tinyosi vs Mhlume Peacemakers

Tinyosi beat Mhlume Peacemakers 3-0 in Premier League on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.