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Tinyosi vs Manzini Sea Birds — Premier League 2020

Tinyosi
Tinyosi
FT
0 – 2
Manzini Sea Birds
Manzini Sea Birds
4/15/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tinyosi33%
×Draw27%
Manzini Sea Birds40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tinyosi
1.15
Manzini Sea Birds
1.31

Manzini Sea Birds creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tinyosi
0.79
Manzini Sea Birds
1.14

allows per match

Tinyosi
1.48
Manzini Sea Birds
1.51

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par
Manzini Sea Birds+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Manzini Sea Birds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw
60%
Tinyosi or Manzini Sea Birds
73%
Draw or Manzini Sea Birds
67%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+
13%
Manzini Sea Birds wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals
68%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
32%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
11%
Manzini Sea Birds 1+ goals
73%
Manzini Sea Birds 2+ goals
38%
Manzini Sea Birds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)
45%
Manzini Sea Birds (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Manzini Sea Birds away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Manzini Sea Birds defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.15

Manzini Sea Birds attack 1.14 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tinyosi scores more
33%
level
27%
Manzini Sea Birds scores more
40%

Manzini Sea Birds at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manzini Sea Birds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tinyosi vs Manzini Sea Birds

Manzini Sea Birds beat Tinyosi 2-0 in Premier League on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.