Tinyosi 1–3 Green Mamba: Result & Stats

Tinyosi

FT

1 – 3

Green Mamba

11/21/2021

Premier League · Round 3Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tinyosi21%

×Draw26%

Green Mamba53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TinyosiExpected goals in this matchGreen Mamba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.48

Tinyosi

0.82

Green Mamba

1.48

Green Mamba creates 80% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

0.79

creates per match

1.49

1.48

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Tinyosi

0.79

Green Mamba

1.49

allows per match

Tinyosi

1.48

Green Mamba

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par

Green Mamba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Green Mamba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw

47%

Tinyosi or Green Mamba

74%

Draw or Green Mamba

79%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+

6%

Green Mamba wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals

56%

Tinyosi 2+ goals

20%

Tinyosi 3+ goals

5%

Green Mamba 1+ goals

77%

Green Mamba 2+ goals

43%

Green Mamba 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)

28%

Green Mamba (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Green Mamba away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Green Mamba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Green Mamba attack 1.49 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tinyosi scores more

21%

level

26%

Green Mamba scores more

53%

Green Mamba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Green Mamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff