Tinyosi 0–1 Denver: Result & Stats | Premier League

Tinyosi

FT

0 – 1

Denver

11/7/2021

Premier League · Round 1Kalanga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tinyosi30%

×Draw29%

Denver40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TinyosiExpected goals in this matchDenver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.17

Tinyosi

0.97

Denver

1.17

Denver creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

0.79

creates per match

0.85

1.48

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Tinyosi

0.79

Denver

0.85

allows per match

Tinyosi

1.48

Denver

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par

Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Denver →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw

60%

Tinyosi or Denver

71%

Draw or Denver

70%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+

11%

Denver wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals

62%

Tinyosi 2+ goals

25%

Tinyosi 3+ goals

7%

Denver 1+ goals

69%

Denver 2+ goals

33%

Denver 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)

43%

Denver (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Denver attack 0.85 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tinyosi scores more

30%

level

29%

Denver scores more

40%

Denver at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff