Tindastóll 2–2 Thróttur Vogar: Result & Stats

Tindastóll

FT

2 – 2

Thróttur Vogar

6/15/2019

2. Deild · Round 7Sauðárkróksvöllur (Sauðárkrókur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tindastóll36%

×Draw23%

Thróttur Vogar41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TindastóllExpected goals in this matchThróttur Vogar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.73

Tindastóll

1.61

Thróttur Vogar

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 81 away

1.55

creates per match

1.83

1.64

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Tindastóll

1.55

Thróttur Vogar

1.83

allows per match

Tindastóll

1.64

Thróttur Vogar

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tindastóll+0.00on par

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tindastóll ↓

Thróttur Vogar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tindastóll or draw

59%

Tindastóll or Thróttur Vogar

77%

Draw or Thróttur Vogar

64%

Winning margin

Tindastóll wins by 2+

18%

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tindastóll 1+ goals

80%

Tindastóll 2+ goals

48%

Tindastóll 3+ goals

22%

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals

82%

Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals

52%

Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tindastóll (draw refunded)

47%

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tindastóll at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tindastóll attack 1.55 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.83 + Tindastóll defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tindastóll scores more

36%

level

23%

Thróttur Vogar scores more

41%

Thróttur Vogar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff