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Tindastóll vs Samherjar — Cup 2019

Tindastóll
Tindastóll
FT
2 – 1
Samherjar
Samherjar
6/13/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundSauðárkróksvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tindastóll89%
×Draw7%
Samherjar4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tindastóll
3.97
Samherjar
0.78

Tindastóll creates 409% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tindastóll
2.44
Samherjar
0.33

allows per match

Tindastóll
1.22
Samherjar
5.50

finishing

Tindastóll+0.00on par
Samherjar+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tindastóll ↓

Samherjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Tindastóll or draw
96%
Tindastóll or Samherjar
93%
Draw or Samherjar
11%

Winning margin

Tindastóll wins by 2+
75%
Samherjar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tindastóll 1+ goals
98%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
89%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
73%
Samherjar 1+ goals
54%
Samherjar 2+ goals
18%
Samherjar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tindastóll (draw refunded)
96%
Samherjar (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tindastóll at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Samherjar away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tindastóll attack 2.44 + Samherjar defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.97

Samherjar attack 0.33 + Tindastóll defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Tindastóll scores more
89%
level
7%
Samherjar scores more
4%

Tindastóll at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Tindastóll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Tindastóll 2–1 Samherjar

Tindastóll beat Samherjar 2-1 in Cup on June 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sauðárkróksvöllur in Sauðárkrókur.