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Tindastóll vs IR Reykjavik — 2. Deild 2018

Tindastóll
Tindastóll
FT
0 – 2
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
5/11/20192. Deild2. Deild · Round 2Sauðárkróksvöllur (Sauðárkrókur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tindastóll39%
×Draw24%
IR Reykjavik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tindastóll
1.61
IR Reykjavik
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 54 away

creates per match

Tindastóll
1.55
IR Reykjavik
1.50

allows per match

Tindastóll
1.64
IR Reykjavik
1.67

finishing

Tindastóll+0.00on par
IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tindastóll ↓

IR Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tindastóll or draw
63%
Tindastóll or IR Reykjavik
76%
Draw or IR Reykjavik
61%

Winning margin

Tindastóll wins by 2+
19%
IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tindastóll 1+ goals
80%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
48%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
22%
IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
79%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
46%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tindastóll (draw refunded)
51%
IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tindastóll at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tindastóll attack 1.55 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

IR Reykjavik attack 1.50 + Tindastóll defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tindastóll scores more
39%
level
24%
IR Reykjavik scores more
37%

Tindastóll at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tindastóll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tindastóll vs IR Reykjavik

IR Reykjavik beat Tindastóll 2-0 in 2. Deild on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Sauðárkróksvöllur (Sauðárkrókur).