Timor-Leste U19 3–4 Malaysia U19: Result & Stats

Timor-Leste U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Malaysia U19

M. D. Requis Dias Quintao 76', 55'

C. M. Fernandes 11'

A. Farhan 63', 15'

M. Yuslan 53'

M. Akmal 8'

7/9/2022

AFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 4Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Timor-Leste U1915%

×Draw16%

Malaysia U1969%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timor-Leste U19Expected goals in this matchMalaysia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.83

Timor-Leste U19

1.27

Malaysia U19

2.83

Malaysia U19 creates 123% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

2.86

2.80

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Timor-Leste U19

1.40

Malaysia U19

2.86

allows per match

Timor-Leste U19

2.80

Malaysia U19

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timor-Leste U19+0.00on par

Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste U19 ↓

Malaysia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Timor-Leste U19 or draw

31%

Timor-Leste U19 or Malaysia U19

84%

Draw or Malaysia U19

85%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste U19 wins by 2+

6%

Malaysia U19 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Timor-Leste U19 1+ goals

72%

Timor-Leste U19 2+ goals

36%

Timor-Leste U19 3+ goals

14%

Malaysia U19 1+ goals

94%

Malaysia U19 2+ goals

77%

Malaysia U19 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Malaysia U19 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste U19 attack 1.40 + Malaysia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Malaysia U19 attack 2.86 + Timor-Leste U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Timor-Leste U19 scores more

15%

level

16%

Malaysia U19 scores more

69%

Malaysia U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Akmal

11'

C. M. Fernandes

15'

A. Farhan

53'

M. Yuslan

55'

M. D. Requis Dias Quintao

63'

A. Farhan

69'

76'

M. D. Requis Dias Quintao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff