Timon MA 0–0 Viana / Real Codó: Result & Stats

Timon MA

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viana / Real Codó

10/31/2024

Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Timon MA15%

×Draw27%

Viana / Real Codó58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timon MAExpected goals in this matchViana / Real Codó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

1.45

Timon MA

0.60

Viana / Real Codó

1.45

Viana / Real Codó creates 142% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.40

0.50

allows per match

0.20

creates per match

Timon MA

1.00

Viana / Real Codó

2.40

allows per match

Timon MA

0.50

Viana / Real Codó

0.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timon MA+0.00on par

Viana / Real Codó+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timon MA ↓

Viana / Real Codó →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–119%

0–214%

0–37%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Timon MA or draw

42%

Timon MA or Viana / Real Codó

73%

Draw or Viana / Real Codó

85%

Winning margin

Timon MA wins by 2+

4%

Viana / Real Codó wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Timon MA 1+ goals

45%

Timon MA 2+ goals

12%

Timon MA 3+ goals

2%

Viana / Real Codó 1+ goals

77%

Viana / Real Codó 2+ goals

42%

Viana / Real Codó 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Timon MA (draw refunded)

21%

Viana / Real Codó (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timon MA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Viana / Real Codó away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timon MA attack 1.00 + Viana / Real Codó defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Viana / Real Codó attack 2.40 + Timon MA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Timon MA scores more

15%

level

27%

Viana / Real Codó scores more

58%

Viana / Real Codó at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Viana / Real Codó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff