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Timon MA vs Tupan — Maranhense - 2 2026

Timon MA
Timon MAadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tupan
Tupan
7/15/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Timon MA58%
×Draw23%
Tupan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timon MA
1.75
Tupan
0.88

Timon MA creates 99% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Timon MA
1.00
Tupan
1.25

allows per match

Timon MA
0.50
Tupan
2.50

finishing

Timon MA+0.00on par
Tupan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timon MA ↓

Tupan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Timon MA or draw
81%
Timon MA or Tupan
77%
Draw or Tupan
42%

Winning margin

Timon MA wins by 2+
33%
Tupan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Timon MA 1+ goals
83%
Timon MA 2+ goals
52%
Timon MA 3+ goals
25%
Tupan 1+ goals
59%
Tupan 2+ goals
22%
Tupan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Timon MA (draw refunded)
76%
Tupan (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timon MA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Tupan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timon MA attack 1.00 + Tupan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tupan attack 1.25 + Timon MA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Timon MA scores more
58%
level
23%
Tupan scores more
19%

Timon MA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Timon MA 5 – 1 Tupan

Timon MA beat Tupan 5-1 in Maranhense - 2 on July 15, 2026.