Timok Zaječar 2–1 SFS Borac: Result & Stats

Timok Zaječar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SFS Borac

8/17/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Timok Zaječar55%

×Draw23%

SFS Borac21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timok ZaječarExpected goals in this matchSFS Borac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.00

Timok Zaječar

1.77

SFS Borac

1.00

Timok Zaječar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 72 away

1.95

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Timok Zaječar

1.95

SFS Borac

1.10

allows per match

Timok Zaječar

0.89

SFS Borac

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

SFS Borac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw

79%

Timok Zaječar or SFS Borac

77%

Draw or SFS Borac

45%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

31%

SFS Borac wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

83%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

53%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

26%

SFS Borac 1+ goals

63%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

26%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

72%

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more

55%

level

23%

SFS Borac scores more

21%

Timok Zaječar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff