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Timok Zaječar vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
3 – 0
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
4/17/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 29Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Timok Zaječar81%
×Draw12%
Moravac Mrštane7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
3.06
Moravac Mrštane
0.84

Timok Zaječar creates 264% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
93%
Timok Zaječar or Moravac Mrštane
88%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
19%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
61%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
95%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
80%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
57%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
57%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
21%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
92%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.06

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
81%
level
12%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
7%

Timok Zaječar at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timok Zaječar vs Moravac Mrštane

Timok Zaječar beat Moravac Mrštane 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.