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Timok Zaječar vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
2 – 1
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
8/26/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Timok Zaječar90%
×Draw7%
Kablovi Zaječar3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
3.90
Kablovi Zaječar
0.71

Timok Zaječar creates 449% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
97%
Timok Zaječar or Kablovi Zaječar
93%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
10%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
76%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
98%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
89%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
72%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
51%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
16%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
96%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.90

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
90%
level
7%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
3%

Timok Zaječar at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Timok Zaječar 2–1 Kablovi Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat Kablovi Zaječar 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.