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Timok Zaječar vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
8/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Timok Zaječar63%
×Draw21%
Dunav Stari Banovci16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
1.98
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.88

Timok Zaječar creates 125% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 7 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.86

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.00

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
84%
Timok Zaječar or Dunav Stari Banovci
79%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
37%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
38%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
86%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
59%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
31%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
59%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
22%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
80%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.86 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
63%
level
21%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
16%

Timok Zaječar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Timok Zaječar 1–1 Dunav Stari Banovci

Timok Zaječar and Dunav Stari Banovci drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.