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Timočanin vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
FT
10 – 2
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 35Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Timočanin80%
×Draw12%
Moravac Mrštane8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
3.27
Moravac Mrštane
0.99

Timočanin creates 230% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 28 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
92%
Timočanin or Moravac Mrštane
88%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
20%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
62%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
96%
Timočanin 2+ goals
83%
Timočanin 3+ goals
62%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
63%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
26%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
91%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.27

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Timočanin scores more
80%
level
12%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
8%

Timočanin at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timočanin vs Moravac Mrštane

Timočanin beat Moravac Mrštane 10-2 in Srpska Liga - East on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Knjaževac.