Timočanin 12–0 Kablovi Zaječar: Result & Stats

Timočanin

FT

12 – 0

Kablovi Zaječar

4/14/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Timočanin89%

×Draw7%

Kablovi Zaječar4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TimočaninExpected goals in this matchKablovi Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.11

0.86

Timočanin

4.11

Kablovi Zaječar

0.86

Timočanin creates 378% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

2.37

creates per match

0.53

1.20

allows per match

5.84

creates per match

Timočanin

2.37

Kablovi Zaječar

0.53

allows per match

Timočanin

1.20

Kablovi Zaječar

5.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par

Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw

96%

Timočanin or Kablovi Zaječar

93%

Draw or Kablovi Zaječar

11%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+

75%

Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals

98%

Timočanin 2+ goals

90%

Timočanin 3+ goals

75%

Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals

58%

Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals

21%

Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)

96%

Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 4.11

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Timočanin scores more

89%

level

7%

Kablovi Zaječar scores more

4%

Timočanin at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff