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Timočanin vs Jagodina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
FT
2 – 2
Jagodina
Jagodina
11/7/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Timočanin49%
×Draw23%
Jagodina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
1.88
Jagodina
1.40

Timočanin creates 34% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 83 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Jagodina
1.59

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Jagodina
1.39

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Jagodina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Jagodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
71%
Timočanin or Jagodina
77%
Draw or Jagodina
51%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
27%
Jagodina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
85%
Timočanin 2+ goals
56%
Timočanin 3+ goals
29%
Jagodina 1+ goals
75%
Jagodina 2+ goals
41%
Jagodina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
63%
Jagodina (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Jagodina away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Jagodina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jagodina attack 1.59 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Timočanin scores more
49%
level
23%
Jagodina scores more
29%

Timočanin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timočanin vs Jagodina

Timočanin and Jagodina drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Knjaževac.