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Jagodina vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
5/18/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jagodina57%
×Draw23%
Timočanin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.76
Timočanin
0.91

Jagodina creates 93% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 73 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
81%
Jagodina or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
43%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
32%
Timočanin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
83%
Jagodina 2+ goals
52%
Jagodina 3+ goals
26%
Timočanin 1+ goals
60%
Timočanin 2+ goals
23%
Timočanin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
75%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jagodina scores more
57%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
19%

Jagodina at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 3–2 Timočanin

Jagodina beat Timočanin 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.