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Timočanin vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
CANC
15:00
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
5/15/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Timočanin67%
×Draw19%
Dinamo Vranje13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
2.12
Dinamo Vranje
0.81

Timočanin creates 162% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 7 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
87%
Timočanin or Dinamo Vranje
81%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
33%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
43%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
88%
Timočanin 2+ goals
62%
Timočanin 3+ goals
35%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
84%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.12

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Timočanin scores more
67%
level
19%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
13%

Timočanin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Timočanin host Dinamo Vranje

May 15, 2022: Timočanin take on Dinamo Vranje in Srpska Liga - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Timočanin host Dinamo Vranje at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.