Timočanin 3–0 Car Konstantin: Result & Stats

Timočanin

FT

3 – 0

Car Konstantin

11/15/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Timočanin63%

×Draw19%

Car Konstantin18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TimočaninExpected goals in this matchCar Konstantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.19

Timočanin

2.37

Car Konstantin

1.19

Timočanin creates 99% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 42 away

2.37

creates per match

1.19

1.20

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Timočanin

2.37

Car Konstantin

1.19

allows per match

Timočanin

1.20

Car Konstantin

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Car Konstantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw

82%

Timočanin or Car Konstantin

81%

Draw or Car Konstantin

37%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+

41%

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals

91%

Timočanin 2+ goals

68%

Timočanin 3+ goals

42%

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

70%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

33%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)

78%

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.37

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Timočanin scores more

63%

level

19%

Car Konstantin scores more

18%

Timočanin at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff