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Timočanin vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
9/24/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Timočanin52%
×Draw22%
Budućnost Popovac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
1.91
Budućnost Popovac
1.30

Timočanin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 87 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
74%
Timočanin or Budućnost Popovac
78%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
48%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
29%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
85%
Timočanin 2+ goals
57%
Timočanin 3+ goals
30%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
73%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
37%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
66%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.91

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Timočanin scores more
52%
level
22%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
26%

Timočanin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Timočanin 1–3 Budućnost Popovac

Budućnost Popovac beat Timočanin 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Knjaževac.