Tillmitsch 4–1 TuS Heiligenkreuz: Result & Stats

Tillmitsch

FT

4 – 1

TuS Heiligenkreuz

8/16/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 3Nunner Arena Tillmitsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tillmitsch58%

×Draw21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TillmitschExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.25

Tillmitsch

2.16

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.25

Tillmitsch creates 73% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

2.22

creates per match

1.49

1.00

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Tillmitsch

2.22

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Tillmitsch

1.00

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tillmitsch+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tillmitsch ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tillmitsch or draw

78%

Tillmitsch or TuS Heiligenkreuz

79%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

42%

Winning margin

Tillmitsch wins by 2+

35%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tillmitsch 1+ goals

88%

Tillmitsch 2+ goals

63%

Tillmitsch 3+ goals

36%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

71%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

36%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)

73%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tillmitsch at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tillmitsch attack 2.22 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.16

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Tillmitsch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tillmitsch scores more

58%

level

21%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

22%

Tillmitsch at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff