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Tillmitsch vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
FT
5 – 1
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
10/20/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Nunner Arena Tillmitsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tillmitsch51%
×Draw22%
Lafnitz II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tillmitsch
2.01
Lafnitz II
1.42

Tillmitsch creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Tillmitsch
2.22
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Tillmitsch
1.00
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Tillmitsch+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tillmitsch ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tillmitsch or draw
73%
Tillmitsch or Lafnitz II
78%
Draw or Lafnitz II
49%

Winning margin

Tillmitsch wins by 2+
30%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tillmitsch 1+ goals
87%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
59%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
32%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
76%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
41%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
65%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tillmitsch at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tillmitsch attack 2.22 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.01

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Tillmitsch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tillmitsch scores more
51%
level
22%
Lafnitz II scores more
27%

Tillmitsch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tillmitsch vs Lafnitz II

Tillmitsch beat Lafnitz II 5-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Nunner Arena Tillmitsch in Tillmitsch.