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Tillmitsch vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ilz
Ilz
4/24/2026Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Nunner Arena Tillmitsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tillmitsch53%
×Draw21%
Ilz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tillmitsch
2.04
Ilz
1.34

Tillmitsch creates 52% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tillmitsch
2.22
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

Tillmitsch
1.00
Ilz
1.85

finishing

Tillmitsch+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tillmitsch ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tillmitsch or draw
75%
Tillmitsch or Ilz
79%
Draw or Ilz
47%

Winning margin

Tillmitsch wins by 2+
31%
Ilz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tillmitsch 1+ goals
87%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
60%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
33%
Ilz 1+ goals
74%
Ilz 2+ goals
39%
Ilz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
68%
Ilz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tillmitsch at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tillmitsch attack 2.22 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ilz attack 1.69 + Tillmitsch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tillmitsch scores more
53%
level
21%
Ilz scores more
25%

Tillmitsch at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Tillmitsch 4–2 Ilz

Tillmitsch beat Ilz 4-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Nunner Arena Tillmitsch in Tillmitsch.