Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tillmitsch vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
FT
2 – 1
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
3/15/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Nunner Arena Tillmitsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tillmitsch64%
×Draw19%
Bruck an der Mur17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tillmitsch
2.40
Bruck an der Mur
1.16

Tillmitsch creates 107% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tillmitsch
2.22
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Tillmitsch
1.00
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Tillmitsch+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tillmitsch ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tillmitsch or draw
83%
Tillmitsch or Bruck an der Mur
81%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
36%

Winning margin

Tillmitsch wins by 2+
42%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tillmitsch 1+ goals
91%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
69%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
42%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
69%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
32%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
79%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tillmitsch at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tillmitsch attack 2.22 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.40

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Tillmitsch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tillmitsch scores more
64%
level
19%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
17%

Tillmitsch at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Tillmitsch 2–1 Bruck an der Mur

Tillmitsch beat Bruck an der Mur 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Nunner Arena Tillmitsch in Tillmitsch.