Tiller 0–2 Steinkjer: Result & Stats

Tiller

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Steinkjer

8/27/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 17TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tiller61%

×Draw18%

Steinkjer21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TillerExpected goals in this matchSteinkjer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.60

Tiller

2.75

Steinkjer

1.60

Tiller creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.91

creates per match

1.50

1.70

allows per match

3.58

creates per match

Tiller

1.91

Steinkjer

1.50

allows per match

Tiller

1.70

Steinkjer

3.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par

Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Steinkjer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Tiller or draw

79%

Tiller or Steinkjer

82%

Draw or Steinkjer

39%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+

41%

Steinkjer wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals

93%

Tiller 2+ goals

75%

Tiller 3+ goals

51%

Steinkjer 1+ goals

80%

Steinkjer 2+ goals

47%

Steinkjer 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)

74%

Steinkjer (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.91 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.75

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Tiller defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tiller scores more

61%

level

18%

Steinkjer scores more

21%

Tiller at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff