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Tiller vs Orkla — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Tiller
Tiller
FT
4 – 0
Orkla
Orkla
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 12TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tiller54%
×Draw20%
Orkla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiller
2.35
Orkla
1.59

Tiller creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tiller
1.91
Orkla
1.48

allows per match

Tiller
1.70
Orkla
2.79

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par
Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Orkla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Tiller or draw
74%
Tiller or Orkla
80%
Draw or Orkla
46%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+
34%
Orkla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals
90%
Tiller 2+ goals
68%
Tiller 3+ goals
41%
Orkla 1+ goals
80%
Orkla 2+ goals
47%
Orkla 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)
68%
Orkla (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.91 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.35

Orkla attack 1.48 + Tiller defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tiller scores more
54%
level
20%
Orkla scores more
26%

Tiller at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tiller 4 – 0 Orkla

Tiller beat Orkla 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at TOBB Arena Sør in Trondheim.